If you’re watching the Aspen market headlines, you’re seeing $100M sales and wondering why inventory is piling up. If you’re watching the snow, you’re wondering where the storms went compared to last January.
The market has shifted from " frantic " to " disciplined." Here is what is actually happening on the ground-and what you need to know before the spring rush.
The Market: The "Discipline Gap"
- The Records are Real: We are still seeing trophy sales defy gravity. The ultra-luxury sector remains detached from reality, with average single-family prices in Aspen hitting $22M+ for Q1. The buyer for the "perfect" home is still writing the check.
The "Silent" Story (Expired Listings): Here is the nuance. Inventory is up approx. 12% year-over-year. We are seeing a wave of listings expire this winter.
- What it means: Buyers have stopped paying "finished home" prices for "project" homes. The Opportunity: If you are a buyer, this is your window. The "Expired" pile is full of sellers who tested the market at 2025 prices and missed. They are now potentially ready to have a real conversation.
Snowfall: Quality over Quantity
Last Jan (2025): We were digging out daily. It was a high-volume month. This Jan (2026): We are seeing a more traditional winter pattern. The base is solid (approx. 40-50" mid-mountain), but we aren't getting the daily refills we saw last year.
Larry’s Take: The groomers are skiing fast and the crowds are manageable. If you’re waiting for the "perfect" powder day to book your trip, book for March, historically our snowiest month.
The Pass Game: Don't Buy Yet (Wait for March 25)
I’ve had clients asking if they should buy their 2026/2027 pass now to beat inflation. Don't.
- The Date: The Aspen Snowmass Spring Pass Sale begins March 25, 2026.
- The Price: Expect the Premier Pass to land around $3,184 (a slight bump from last year's sale). Why Wait? Buying in the Spring Sale window gives you the best rate and historically offers full refundability through late August. Put a reminder in your phone for 3/25.
The "Rule of 6": Why Scrapers aren't Selling
If you’re looking at an older home in the West End or Red Mountain and thinking, "I'll just tear it down," stop. You need to know about the Demolition Allotment.
- The Cap: The City of Aspen now caps free-market residential demolition permits to just 6 per year.
- The Queue: It is a first-come, first-served system that resets annually. If you miss the window, you are holding that "scraper" for a full year before you can even apply to tear it down.
Tax Update: The "Classic" vs. "Exempt" Trap
- The Loophole: Properties that qualify as "Lodging Exempt" (like The Gant or Hyatt) pay 17.35% total.
- Larry's Advice: If ROI is your primary goal, let's look at the "Lodging Exempt" list. The 5% variance changes the cap rate significantly.
The Bottom Line
The "COVID premium" for average inventory is gone. The market is healthy, but it is picky.
- Sellers: Pricing must reflect the current condition, not the potential condition.
- Buyers: The expired list is your best friend right now. Want to see the list of 'Lodging Exempt' complexes or the properties that expired this month? Reply to this thread, and I’ll send it over.